Patriots vs. Bills odds, line, spread: Monday Night Football picks, predictions from model on 118-76 roll

The Buffalo Bills will look to stay red-hot when they visit the AFC East-rival New England Patriots on Monday Night Football. The Bills (11-3) have won seven of eight, including four in a row, to clinch the AFC East with two weeks to go in the regular season. It also clinched Buffalo’s third postseason appearance in four years. The Patriots (6-8), meanwhile, will look to avoid their first losing season in two decades.

Kickoff from Gillette Stadium is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. The Bills are 7.5-point favorites in the latest Patriots vs. Bills odds from William Hill Sportsbook, while the over-under is 47. Before making any Bills vs. Patriots picks, check out the latest NFL predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 22-11 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning over $800. The model also enters Week 16 on an incredible 118-76 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. 

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Patriots vs. Bills. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NFL lines and trends for Bills vs. Patriots:

  • Patriots vs. Bills spread: Bills -7.5
  • Patriots vs. Bills over-under: 47 points
  • Patriots vs. Bills money line: Bills -360, Patriots +300
  • BUF: Over has hit in nine Bills games this season
  • NE: 4-0 all-time against Buffalo on Monday Night Football 

Why the Bills can cover

Buffalo’s receiving corps is among the best in the league and has already registered 356 catches on the season. One of the leaders of the group is wide receiver Cole Beasley, who has 79 receptions for 950 yards and four scores. Last week at Denver, Beasley had eight catches for 112 yards and has eight or more catches and 110 or more receiving yards in two of the past three games. 

Also leading the offense is running back Zack Moss, who tied a career-high with 81 rushing yards against the Broncos last week. He rushed for 81 yards and scored a career-high two touchdowns in the Week 8 meeting with New England. For the season, Moss has carried 97 times for 416 yards and three scores. He has four explosive plays and has converted 24 first downs. 

Why the Patriots can cover

Jakobi Meyers is the Patriots’ top receiver with 49 catches for 616 yards. He has 10 explosive plays with a high of 35 yards. He has 179 yards after the catch and has converted 31 first downs. Last week at Miami, Meyers had seven receptions for 111 yards. In the Week 8 meeting with the Bills, he had six catches for 58 yards. 

Also looking to step up is wide receiver Damiere Byrd, who is second on the team with 45 receptions for 590 yards (13.1 average) and one touchdown. He had 39 receiving yards in the Week 8 matchup. His best game was at Houston on Nov. 22, when he caught six passes for 132 yards and one touchdown. 

How to make Patriots vs. Bills picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning over on the total. In fact, it says Allen will throw for nearly 300 yards and two touchdowns, while New England quarterback Cam Newton will have more than 200 yards from scrimmage and two TDs. It also says one side of the spread cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick here

So who wins Bills vs. Patriots on Monday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits over half the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Patriots spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up well over $7,900 on its NFL picks over the past five seasons, and find out.