The North Carolina Tar Heels look to stay hot when they take on the Florida State Seminoles in a key Atlantic Coast Conference matchup on Saturday. The Tar Heels (8-4), who have won three in a row, are ninth in the ACC at 3-2, but are just 1-3 on the road. The Seminoles (6-2), who have won two of three, are tied for sixth with Pittsburgh at 2-1 in the conference. FSU is 6-1 on its home floor.
Tip-off from the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Fla., is slated for noon ET. UNC leads the all-time series 50-14, including a 17-7 edge in games played at Tallahassee. The Seminoles are four-point favorites in the latest North Carolina vs. Florida State odds from William Hill Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is set at 145.5. Before making any Florida State vs. North Carolina picks, check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past four-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- North Carolina vs. Florida State spread: Florida State -4
- North Carolina vs. Florida State over-under: 145.5 points
- UNC: Leads the nation in offensive rebounds per game at 16.7
- FSU: Has won 19 consecutive ACC games at the Donald L. Tucker Center
Florida State Seminoles
Why North Carolina can cover
The Tar Heels have played well within the conference with all five ACC games decided by six points or less. North Carolina has a pair of players averaging in double figures in sophomore forward Armando Bacot and senior forward Garrison Brooks. Bacot is averaging 11.3 points and eight rebounds per game, and is hitting 62.8 percent of his shots from the floor. Bacot is coming off a 15-point, 12-rebound performance against Syracuse on Tuesday. It was his third double-double of the season. His most productive game was a 19-point, 11-rebound effort against North Carolina Central on Dec. 12.
Also making his mark for the Tar Heels is Brooks, who is averaging 10.7 points, 7.9 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 1.1 blocks. He is hitting 44.1 percent of his field goals, including 66.7 percent from 3-point range. Brooks also recorded a double-double against Syracuse on Tuesday with 16 points and 10 rebounds. It was his first of the season, although he has come within a rebound or two of achieving it three other times.
Why Florida State can cover
The Seminoles have played well within the conference and are 31-10 (.756 winning percentage) in league action since the start of the 2018-19 season. They have six players averaging seven points or more, including senior guard M.J. Walker, who is averaging 15.8 points per game. He is hitting 44.7 percent of his field goals, including 41.5 percent from 3-point range, and 93.2 percent of his free throws. For the season, he is averaging 2.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 0.8 steals per game. Walker has made at least one 3-pointer in each of the Seminoles’ eight games this season and 10 consecutive games dating back to March 4, 2020.
Also powering Florida State is freshman guard Scottie Barnes, who is off to a fast start to his collegiate career. He is averaging 11.1 points, 3.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.5 steals and 0.4 blocks per game. Barnes has scored in double figures in four games, including a 17-point performance against Florida on Dec. 12. He scored 11 points in Wednesday’s victory over North Carolina State.
How to make North Carolina vs. Florida State picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with the simulations showing the teams will combine for 140 points. It also says one side of the spread hits well over 70 percent of the time. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins FSU vs. UNC? And which side of the spread hits well over 70 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.