Two AFC playoff hopefuls face off the day after Christmas as Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins (9-5) take their talents to Las Vegas, where they will face the Raiders (7-7). The Dolphins got back into the win column last weekby defeating Cam Newton and the New England Patriots, 22-12. It was a well-rounded outing for Miami, as Tagovailoa rushed for two touchdowns, Salvon Ahmed rushed for a career-high 122 yards and a touchdown and the defense kept the Patriots out of the end zone all afternoon. As for the Raiders, they fell in overtime to the Los Angeles Chargers last week, 30-27. More importantly, however, Derek Carr left the game early on due to a groin injury that was supposed to force him to miss some time, but he has gutted out a week of practice and is expected to start.
The all-time series between the Dolphins and Raiders is tied 17-17-1, but the Dolphins have won six out of the past seven. Below, we will get you caught up on the most intriguing betting angles to get you locked in before kickoff.
All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
How to watch
The pick: Dolphins -3. This pick is about riding the hot team. The Dolphins have an NFL-best 11-3 record against the spread this season. They have covered four straight games and nine of their last 10 games, and Tagovailoa is 6-1 against the spread as the starting quarterback. While Tagovailoa has been exciting to watch, Miami’s defense has really been incredible. The Dolphins have the best scoring defense in the NFL (18.4 points per game) and lead the NFL in takeaways (26). The Raiders, however, have been struggling as of late, as they are 0-4 against the spread in their last four games.
The pick: Over 47.5. This season, Raiders Overs are 10-3-1, which is tied with the Tennessee Titans for best in the NFL. Their games are averaging 57 points, which is the most in the NFL.
Other props to consider
Tua Tagovailoa total passing touchdowns: Over 1.5 (-110). Tagovailoa passed for zero touchdowns last week, but I think that will change against one of the worst defenses in the league.
Myles Gaskin total rushing yards: Over 50.5 (-120). Gaskin is back, and he has rushed for over 50 yards in three out of the past four games. SportsLine projects he hits the Over on this prop and I do as well.
Darren Waller total receiving yards: Over 55.5 (-115). Against the Chargers, Waller caught nine passes for 150 yards and a touchdown despite catching passes from the backup quarterback for the majority of the matchup. It marked Waller’s second game of at least 150 receiving yards in the past three weeks, and also solidified his spot in NFL history. According to NFL Research, Waller now has the most receiving yards recorded by a tight end during a three-game span in the regular season in league history with 425. Waller is seemingly always great in primetime, so take the Over here.