Browns vs. Chiefs odds, line, spread: NFL picks, 2021 Divisional Round predictions from model on 120-78 roll

The Cleveland Browns made history in their first playoff victory since 1994, and up next is the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in Sunday’s AFC Divisional Playoff Game at Arrowhead Stadium. Cleveland (12-5) set an NFL postseason record with 28 points in the first quarter and forced five turnovers in a 48-37 victory against the Steelers last week. Quarterback Baker Mayfield threw for 263 yards and three touchdowns but now matches up with former league MVP Patrick Mahomes and the loaded offense of the Chiefs (14-2) in the 2021 NFL Playoffs.

Kickoff is set for 3:05 p.m. ET. William Hill Sportsbook lists Kansas City as a 10-point favorite in the latest Browns vs. Chiefs odds, with the over-under for total points scored set at 57. Before making any Chiefs vs. Browns picks, see the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,900 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception five-plus years ago. It is a sizzling 24-14 on top-rated NFL picks this season, returning well over $800. The model also enters the Divisional Round of the 2021 NFL Playoffs on an incredible 120-78 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch three of the past four years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 95 percent of CBS Sports office pool players three times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Browns. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are the latest NFL odds and trends for Browns vs. Chiefs:

  • Browns vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -10
  • Browns vs. Chiefs over-under: 57
  • Browns vs. Chiefs money line: Cleveland +400, Kansas City -500
  • CLE: QB Baker Mayfield has thrown for at least 250 yards in six of the past seven games
  • KC: TE Travis Kelce has at least seven receptions in eight straight games

Latest Odds:

Kansas City Chiefs

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City is 10-4 against the spread against teams with a winning record, and Mahomes and Co. score nearly 30 points per game. He leads the league’s top offense and faces a defense that ranks 22nd against the pass. The 2018 MVP was second in the league in passing yards (4,740) and fourth in TDs (38), and he has talent everywhere around him. All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce was second in the league with 1,416 yards and scored 11 times.

Mahomes also has a strong rapport with speedy wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who has scored 15 TDs and averages 14.7 yards per catch. The starters allow just 22.6 points per game (10th in NFL), and the Chiefs have 22 takeaways. Safety Tyrann Mathieu has six of the team’s 16 interceptions and the Browns have coughed it up 17 times.  

Why the Browns can cover

The road team is 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings between the teams, and the Browns face a Chiefs defense that has struggled against the run. The Browns rank third in the league in rushing (148.4), while Kansas City is 21st (122.1). Nick Chubb is the main option, averaging 5.6 yards per carry. Kareem Hunt rushed for 841 yards and six TDs and had 38 receptions for more than 300 yards.

The Browns are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven meetings against the Chiefs, and Mayfield threw for more than 3,500 yards and had 26 TD passes during the regular season. Receivers Jarvis Landry (840 yards) and Rashard Higgins (16.2 yards per catch) can make big plays, while tight end Austin Hooper (46 receptions) is a valuable weapon.

Cleveland also is in the top 10 in run defense and is keyed by Myles Garrett, who had 12 sacks and recovered two fumbles during the regular season.

How to make Browns vs. Chiefs picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with the simulations showing the teams combining for 54 points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see which side to back here.

So who wins Chiefs vs. Browns in the 2021 NFL Playoffs? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Chiefs vs. Browns spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the model on a 120-78 roll, and find out.